It’s official—Tucson’s largest mall has hit the market. While the sale itself may not be breaking news, the implications for the region’s commercial real estate landscape are worth a closer look.

With retail real estate evolving rapidly, this listing presents both an opportunity and a question mark for investors, developers, and brokers alike. Is this the right time to buy, hold, or reposition retail assets in Southern Arizona?

By the Numbers: A Strong Performing Asset

1. Tucson’s Unique Risks Demand Extra Protection

The Offering Memorandum (OM) presents a compelling financial picture:

• $15MM+ in Net Operating Income (NOI)

• 94% leased—a strong occupancy rate in any market

• $491 per square foot (PSF) in in-line sales

At 1.3 million square feet, this mall stands well above the typical size range for similar assets (400k–800k+ SQFT). For perspective, the U.S. has roughly 1,000 comparable malls, according to Coresight Research.

And despite concerns about the future of brick-and-mortar retail, Coresight reports that malls with occupancy rates of 95%+ have made a significant post-pandemic comeback. Many in this class generate between $500–$800 PSF in sales, making Tucson’s largest mall competitively positioned.

Why Now? Brookfield’s Strategic Move

• Retail Resilience: The return of in-person shopping has stabilized occupancy rates and sales numbers.

• Strategic Timing: With demand for stabilized assets still high, this could be an opportunity to exit at peak value.

• Market Uncertainty: Economic factors—both local and national—may be driving Brookfield’s decision to strike while conditions are favorable.

The Big Question: Headwinds or Tailwinds?

While the numbers look promising, macroeconomic factors could influence future performance:

 Tariffs and Supply Chain Challenges – Increased costs on imported goods could affect retailers’ bottom lines.
 Declining Immigration – Fewer workers and shifting consumer demographics could impact labor availability and retail spending.
 Economic Uncertainty – Interest rates, inflation, and evolving consumer behavior remain key considerations for investors.

What’s Next for Tucson Retail?

This sale raises an important question: Are we at a high point for retail investment, or is the market shifting once again?

For local investors, developers, and brokers, the challenge is clear—sit back and watch, or seize the moment?

What do you think? Is now the right time to invest in Tucson retail, or should we be rethinking the future of large-scale shopping centers?

Let’s discuss.